New Model of Forest Succession at UMBS

Project Overview
Research Core Areas: 
Project Abstract: 
We seek to create the capability to map and model forest succession and biomass outcomes at the UMBS under different scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections) and under forest health pressures (absence of fire and the currently devastating beech-bark disease). For modeling, we will use LANDIS-II, regional landscape modelling package, co-developed for upper Great Lakes forests by the US Forest Service. This model has not previously been parameterized for UMBS ecosystems at the landscape scale. We will also use remotely sensed and field data. Our expected outcomes are: 1) a new map of forest age cohorts at UMBS, 2) a newly parameterized LANDIS-II model for UMBS (and representative of the broader northern lower Michigan region), 3) mapped datasets of beech bark disease, 4) modeled scenarios of forest succession under all combinations of natural succession, climate change, fire suppression, and pathogens, 5) graduate student theses, and 6) datasets shared in a new web-based database being built for all University forest properties.
Investigator Info
Funding agency: 
USFS McIntire-Stennis
Years research project active: 
2019 to 2021